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Summary
The workshop is intended to bring the growing community of volcanic
eruption modelers together with experimentalists and observationalists to
accomplish two specific objectives:
1. Ensure that modelers are provided the most up-to-date values of magmatic
parameters on the basis of recent experimental results and observations, and
2. Establish a standardized set of model "experiments" with identical magma and
conduit characteristics and with a common protocol so that model results can be
subsequently meaningfully compared and evaluated.
The state of the art in modeling of volcanic systems has progressed to the point
where it would now be very beneficial to be able to explore the sensitivity of
modelled volcanic conduit systems to magma parametric values, overall system
geometry, and most critically, fundamental physical formulation and underlying
assumptions. In parallel with the efforts of the modeling community, a growing
number of experimental results are emerging that bear directly on the
parameterization of volcanic eruption models. It is thus possible to abandon
many of the "if-then" scenarios traditionally resorted to by modellers, and use
real-world values for magma parameters in an attempt to more realistically
simulate natural magmatic conditions and thus better understand the processes
involved in actual eruptions. Recent advances in observational techniques and
analysis of natural volcanic products has also added to the arsenal of
information that can be used to better calibrate, constrain and/or evaluate the
performance of numerical models.
It is imperative that all models use the same values for fundamental parameters
so that their individual performance can be assessed. By running models in this
way, the differences in results will reflect contrasting formulations, and thus
provide insights into the processes being modeled. A specific set of
"experiments" will be devised by the modelers at the workshop using a common
protocol (but with individual approaches and formulations). The objectives of
the workshop will thus be to produce a standard set of parameters and a set of
model "experiments" to be performed by the all models. With this result,
modeling participants will return to their labs, and in the following months,
will perform the full suite of model runs, providing the specific set of output
required by the standard protocol. The results will be subsequently compiled and
evaluated to determine the sources of differences in model output. (Based on
prior experience with model intercomparison workshops, there are sure to be
major differences.) The results of the model runs will be brought together at a
special session in April, 2003 at the joint AGU-EGS-EUG meeting. This will be a
good venue for displaying the results and highlighting the critical differences
in model formulation that bear on our understanding of magmatic processes prior
to and during volcanic eruption.
Modelers will then be able to revisit their
models to explore the sensitivity of their formulations to variations in
functionalization so that the key differences can be pinpointed. It is expected
that once this is done, it will point to specific magma characteristics that are
insufficiently understood. This, in turn, will spur experimentalists to return
to their labs to focus attention on the most critical parameters identified by
the model intercomparison results.
A workshop report will be written and posted on the web, and a short
peer-reviewed paper will be written defining the protocol and standardized
constraints. However, a major review paper will be written after the second
workshop, in which the detailed results of the model runs and the assessment of
the comparison will be published. In addition, modeling groups will publish
specific papers individually and in collaboration as appropriate.
It is expected that a synthesis of the results of this model intercomparison
activity will lead to identification of a number of critical conceptual,
experimental, and observational gaps. As these are brought to light, the
research community can most effectively move forward to address these gaps in
subsequent research within the experimental and observational, as well as
modeling sectors.
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